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Post by Cole D on Aug 21, 2022 15:51:30 GMT -5
Some of the stuff that is happening on an election year makes no sense to me but the country is so divided on various things its like is there a swing voter or have you chosen your side at this point? I don't see wages going up. Minimum Wage has gone up but not my pay. We're having big trouble getting people hired at work. People have been leaving big time. Hmmmm but were not attracting people ever think of increasing the base wage? You approved us for over time when were salaried. You gave us our bonuses and an extra bonus but how bout jump up when a lot of people went elsewhere cause they could make a few less dollars an hour but not be super stressed. I'm starting to see less stuff popping up low end and middle stuff still high but sitting there longer. Some stuff though is still going over asking and selling in days. I could sell my house still overnight probably form where I live but my wife would NOT be happy. Its unique because there is lowish unemployment but still a lot of positions out there. I don't care what the whitehouse says we are in a recession at this point and its gonna get worse. I pray no one loses their jobs. I know a bunch of people back in '08 who did. Thankfully I was in high school at the time but the thought of losing my jobn is some scary stuff. Were definitely in a different world then we were in 2008. Where I work we've had a few new hires from 2021 and this year, but the ones we had mostly decided they didn't like the work. In fact I don't think any of the ones in my position have stayed, so we are technically somewhat understaffed as we got two and they left then hired one more and they left. I don't know what the issue was, I think it was too tedious or they weren't catching on or something, IDK. I got a raise last week, didn't hear anything about it but just showed up on my paycheck. I was surprised given how things are looking with housing and the seeming nervousness about the economy. That tells me it might not be here yet. I've just given up on having a house. I am pretty sure we either are going into/are in a recession whatever you want to call it something is happening. Large companies are doing layoffs, mortgage companies and startups (especially real estate related) are doing layoffs. Really I am more or less expecting to get laid off. The question is when, it could be next year, 2-3 years who knows. But I do know we are having/going to have a drop in construction/home sales. Now prices may or may not correct as low as they did in 2012 era, I'm not sure what is going to happen in this modern economy/real estate market. It may be that the big companies buy up everything to convert to rentals if prices do drop. Which we did NOT have happen post crash last time as foreclosures had to be vetted by owner/primary home occupiers by Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac before any investors or 2nd+ homebuyers, because of the HomePath/HomeSteps policies. That may not happen this time if corporations have enough pull with the government (and they clearly do). This is going to take a long time to play out more or less. But it could go quicker than last time depending what happens with interest rates and the economy. Right now there's still a ton of discretionary spending with people eating out/going to movies and other venues/travel, etc. Especially given many stayed home for two years whether you believe it was worth doing or not. So we aren't even anywhere into this yet, it's just starting to show. My guess I get laid off a year or two from now, so if you want to go by 2006-2012 era probably about 6 years for this mess to work it's way through and things start hiring again. I know my company I've been hearing people talk lately about how they were laid off in 2006-2009. Some of them have been hired back, I know when I started in 2014 they were just starting to hire employees again, I was about the third one they had brought in post fallout. Of course this might not go like 2006 and it goes faster/slower. Who knows. I think I'm just going to have to rent. I was trying to stay home and keep saving which is what I would like to do and what the plan has been since I've been working. But with what happened the last 3 years buying a home isn't anywhere on the horizon. Best case prices drop after this whole job situation fallout/comeback happens and I can get back in while prices are low (again if they fall much) which would put us in 2028/2029 going by the last cycle that lasted 2005-2012/13. Maybe a little later because just getting back into the higher pay is going to take a few more years, they aren't going to pay as much as they are now just after the fallout. So maybe early 2030s buying will be in the picture again? Hard to say.
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Post by MrFanMan on Sept 4, 2022 23:17:34 GMT -5
In 2018, my wife and I moved out of the Dallas into a house on a bit of acreage in the country, and the change was absolutely worth it. We have probably ten times the property (if not more) for what the same money would fetch in the city. At first I wasn't totslly sure we made the right choice, but now I cannot fathom going back into the burbs. At this point the only debt we have is the mortgage. We buckled down and knocked out her loans and car payment. I have three trucks, all paid for in cash because they're older (2000, 2007, 2009), higher mileage, and cheap (I don't even have $15,000 into all three of them combined).
My wife's a teacher, and I repair welders for a local repair shop, though I have started to do some work on my own on the side. The demand for our respective lines of work is so high that job security is a little too good. My goal right now is get my business up and running so she can quit teaching, and for me able to work out of the shop I just built at our house.
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Post by Cole D on Sept 7, 2022 20:29:39 GMT -5
This is really starting to stress me out. I can't believe the prices from last summer to now there's a significant increase. I know people keep saying with rates going up prices will have to come down, but look at the 70s and early 80s. Rates went up like 10% but the median home prices still kept increasing then.
This is really stressing me out, I want a house so bad, and I can't believe I made such a mistake not buying in 2019 or prior. Even if I bought 2020 or last summer I would have been probably okay. But now it's just not possible. The rates are not going down anytime soon and I just feel like the prices won't either. It just keeps going higher and higher.
Plus if you rent an apartment you're stuck in a lease for a year and those have gotten ridiculous too. It worries me so much I get so angry and upset over all this. I have no idea what I'm going to do as there's just nothing to do about the high prices. That's just what houses are worth now. I just don't understand how in 2.5 years it got so bad.
I heard if prices do come down it tends to take about 6 years from the peak, I really hope it's not going to take that long, just tired of waiting.
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Post by Parkman on Sept 8, 2022 20:11:07 GMT -5
Don’t get discouraged it may work out. But I totally get the frustrations.
I don’t know what to say rates are gonna continue to rise. They have too. I think prices will come down we’re seeing it where I live stuff that was normally $185k was up to like $320 now is down to $249k so it does seem to be happening. I think it will continue the economy is in the crapper the leadership of this country is horrible so I think people are gonna keep reeling in. Plus the majority of people are now acting like the pandemic never happened
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Post by MrFanMan on Sept 8, 2022 22:35:55 GMT -5
Don’t get discouraged it may work out. But I totally get the frustrations. I don’t know what to say rates are gonna continue to rise. They have too. I think prices will come down we’re seeing it where I live stuff that was normally $185k was up to like $320 now is down to $249k so it does seem to be happening. I think it will continue the economy is in the crapper the leadership of this country is horrible so I think people are gonna keep reeling in. Plus the majority of people are now acting like the pandemic never happened Ditto here. Things popped up like crazy for a bit there. They're still up in general, but there was a point where property got nuts around us. Building materials are still a little insane, which drives me absolutely nuts as a former fabricator. You can still find a place without going broke, but you may have to move out into the burbs/rural areas. I, for one, don't miss living in Dallas at all.
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Post by Parkman on Sept 9, 2022 5:37:00 GMT -5
Definitely. That’s a big factor and oil being up doesn’t help too as it’s build into the price of everything. I’ve had to buy 2x4’s for various projects this year and everytime the price was nuts and up a dollar now then up another 75 cents I became an “old man” and started ranting to anyone who would listen. But then again think how many boards go into a house.
Here it’s opposite. I live in a rural area but my specific town always Carry’s a premium because it’s a minimum five acres you have to have to build, good schools etc. development houses and sub divisions seem to be the ones going down. Personally to me it’s all the location and space over the house you can always change the house down the road.
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Post by Tais on Sept 9, 2022 11:40:13 GMT -5
Here patrol rose up so much during the russia/ukraine war since the beginning of the year (from roughly $0.6/l to around $1.3/l), since last 2 months, the price dropped a lot, now at around $0.85/l and hoping it reduces further
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Post by Cole D on Sept 9, 2022 11:50:32 GMT -5
I know at my job we had so many lumber increases in 2020 and 2021 on jobs, it was sad having to constantly get lumber addendums approved and signed. Most of the builders realized what was happening though. But then you have to pass that to the customer too.
I was looking at buying a 6x6 post in late 2019 to put up a light possibly and by summer 2020 the price had increased so much already it was crazy. This year and I'd say the last several months we've been giving refunds on jobs since the lumber costs have fallen so much. But I haven't paid attention if those costs are reflected at home centers and lumber yards or not. Now though it's the costs with fuel and steel that are keeping prices up.
I wanted to build a house at some point but I don't think I'll ever afford it. My aunt was telling me her house cost $65 a square foot to build in 2004 and that is a nice house. My friend told me earlier this year they tell people they start at $150 per square foot plus land and site work. Yeah I don't think that's ever going to happen for me. LOL
I have seen some pretty big price drops here the last month or so, $20K $40K on some houses. But the houses are still very expensive and not selling. Some of them were just so overpriced that $40K is nothing and they are still overpriced. Nothing anywhere close to 2019 prices and you have double the interest rates and the houses have doubled in the last 2.5 years so your property tax and insurance will double soon after you buy.
I don't know how people afford this, I guess with two incomes you could still buy possibly, but I think people also aren't factoring in how high the taxes and insurance are going to go up either, and that's a big issue. They are basing it off the last sale which was probably at least $100K lower than it will be now.
I've also been watching videos from realtors and investors and they are saying this is similar to 2008 and wait to buy because it's going to fall. I don't remember much about the 2008 crash but looking at how high some prices went up it seems similar. And they've gone up more than that did. I was in college at the time and my parents weren't in jobs effected much by the recession so I didn't notice much other than how cheap houses got in 2012 or so.
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Post by Cole D on Sept 22, 2022 22:26:06 GMT -5
Well hearing what the fed has been saying I think we're going into a recession, if we weren't already, in order to bring down inflation. I'm hoping that this causes prices to go down to more reasonable levels, but we shall see. I think the prices on a lot of things needs to come down obviously. I'm just concerned about job stability as we go into this. Definitely won't be buying a home or any large purchases anytime soon.
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